1694 Bank of England首確立金本位
1791Alexander Hamilton 主張成立bank of us----but Tomas Jefferson反對
1834林肯為戰爭印太多超票
1913威爾遜總統建聯邦儲備局 儲備gold=dollar*40%
Federal Reserve三功--1.Federal open market comittee 參與貨幣市場操作~2.貼現率discount rate短天期貨幣拆款--3.reserve requirment
第一次世界大戰美債從10億飆至270億
1929紐約股市大跌1/3
1971 8月15日 Nixon declared the gold window of the Federal Reserve to be closed.
gold: supply and demand http://www.invest.gold.org/sites/en/why_gold/demand_and_supply/
如果中央銀行印太多鈔票而造成物價上漲
則社會安全體系social security 會瓦解 and 中產階級middle class 會崩跌
nn金本位制度
19世紀中葉英、法、德、美等主要國家採取以黃金做為支撐的貨幣制度--n各國自訂該國貨幣與黃金間的鑄幣平價，同時無條件維持貨幣與黃金間的兌換關係 n1盎司黃金=4.252英鎊、1盎司黃金=20.646美元 →1英鎊＝20.646/4.252美元≒4.856美元 n透過黃金在國家間的自由移動，可自動使實際匯率朝鑄幣平價關係的匯率進行調整
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n休姆之「黃金流量自動調整機能」：當英國相對美國出現出超 → 黃金由美國流向英國 → 英國貨幣供給數量提高 → 物價上漲 → 出口競爭力下滑→ 緩和英國出超、美國入超 → 使貿易失衡得以自動調整
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金本位制度的缺點
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金本位制度的興衰
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布列敦森林協定的成果
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特里芬矛盾
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1960年美、歐成立黃金同盟干預黃金市場、維持美元價位的穩定
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FM:http://goldprice.org/bob/2008/01/inflation-cause-and-effect.html
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Inflation cause and effect
It's a good thing people do not know what causes rising prices (which they think is inflation) and crashing economies, or they would be really ticked off, or having a revolution in the streets the next day. The cause is too much creation of what they call "money". Artificial demand for real goods and services is caused be artificially creating to much credit, which when accepted, is debt.
Instead of the demand for real economic goods and services coming from the creation, and then spending, of real wealth, it comes from the creation of credit and debt that was not earned because it will not be paid back because there is not enough creation of real wealth to support the future payment of the debt. Debt default causes economic contractions.
Keep an eye out for the amount of debt relative to the amount of wealth. Ratios count, a lot! Also whether the ratio is changing, and if so, which side(s) of the ratio is changing and by how much. There are constants in life, but not many; so are there trends. There are plenty of trends that make huge differences that need watching.
If debt keeps increasing while real wealth creation does not keep pace, or stops, or declines, some kind of economic and financial adjustment has to take place. After all, how long will a debtor be allowed to keep taking on debt when it becomes obvious that the debtor is not doing enough, nor will the debtor be able to in the future, to make the future payments on the debt.
It works the same for individuals, towns, companies, cities and national governments.
The "money" monster is stalking the world.
From the Fed's third quarter "Flow of Funds" report:
Total US credit growth expanded at an annualized $4.99 trillion.
To give that number some perspective, the US has an annualized GDP of about $14 trillion. That means that about 36% of GDP was borrowed. It was not necessarily due to the creation of real wealth, real goods and services.
Imagine what all those dollars are ultimately going to do to the prices of real goods and services; real goods and services becoming scarcer relative to the number of dollars chasing real goods and services.
If someone borrows "money" from a bank, the bank takes that person's I.O.U. and puts it on its books as an asset because, to the bank, it is. If that person takes that "money" and buys debt in the debt market, no real wealth was created. Yet all other things being equal, GDP increases because of those exchanges of "money". A GDP number means a lot less than most people think.
An increasing GDP number can mean that a nation is increasing it total real wealth. It can also mean that it is actully consuming/spending its real wealth, becoming less wealthy. One has to look under the hood, dig into the details, other fundamentals, to know.
By the way, when the bank puts that I.O.U. on its books as an asset, that action increases its reserves. Therefor, since its reserves increased, it is allowed to create more dollars, out of thin air, necessary to make that loan.
If central banks and the banking system as a whole are allowed to create fiat tokens out of thin air, how come "counterfeiters" are not allowed to?
Where was the use of human hands and mind, manipulating nature, being used to create real economic goods and services in these exchanges? Virtually none. Yet GDP increases. GDP can be increasing while the rate of the production of real wealth is actually decreasing. At some point in future time, real wealth is needed to pay off these loans. Let's see now, real debt increasing with real wealth decreasing. ... trouble ahead.
The rate of debt and "money" creation has got way out of line with the rate of real wealth creation. At this point, there is going to be quite the reaction/adjustment/correction. And, it will not be felt just in the US.
Now a days, since 1971 (Brenton Woods Agreement), these huge increases of "money" supply (mostly digital bits on a hard drive) and the huge reaction/adjustment/correction that is inevitable are due to those that control the hard drives that contain the supply of digital bits. It and the next Great Depression, sure is not due to the invisible hand of a free market.
Suggested reading: Markets Don't Fail - Brian Simpson
Instead of the demand for real economic goods and services coming from the creation, and then spending, of real wealth, it comes from the creation of credit and debt that was not earned because it will not be paid back because there is not enough creation of real wealth to support the future payment of the debt. Debt default causes economic contractions.
Keep an eye out for the amount of debt relative to the amount of wealth. Ratios count, a lot! Also whether the ratio is changing, and if so, which side(s) of the ratio is changing and by how much. There are constants in life, but not many; so are there trends. There are plenty of trends that make huge differences that need watching.
If debt keeps increasing while real wealth creation does not keep pace, or stops, or declines, some kind of economic and financial adjustment has to take place. After all, how long will a debtor be allowed to keep taking on debt when it becomes obvious that the debtor is not doing enough, nor will the debtor be able to in the future, to make the future payments on the debt.
It works the same for individuals, towns, companies, cities and national governments.
The "money" monster is stalking the world.
From the Fed's third quarter "Flow of Funds" report:
Total US credit growth expanded at an annualized $4.99 trillion.
To give that number some perspective, the US has an annualized GDP of about $14 trillion. That means that about 36% of GDP was borrowed. It was not necessarily due to the creation of real wealth, real goods and services.
Imagine what all those dollars are ultimately going to do to the prices of real goods and services; real goods and services becoming scarcer relative to the number of dollars chasing real goods and services.
If someone borrows "money" from a bank, the bank takes that person's I.O.U. and puts it on its books as an asset because, to the bank, it is. If that person takes that "money" and buys debt in the debt market, no real wealth was created. Yet all other things being equal, GDP increases because of those exchanges of "money". A GDP number means a lot less than most people think.
An increasing GDP number can mean that a nation is increasing it total real wealth. It can also mean that it is actully consuming/spending its real wealth, becoming less wealthy. One has to look under the hood, dig into the details, other fundamentals, to know.
By the way, when the bank puts that I.O.U. on its books as an asset, that action increases its reserves. Therefor, since its reserves increased, it is allowed to create more dollars, out of thin air, necessary to make that loan.
If central banks and the banking system as a whole are allowed to create fiat tokens out of thin air, how come "counterfeiters" are not allowed to?
Where was the use of human hands and mind, manipulating nature, being used to create real economic goods and services in these exchanges? Virtually none. Yet GDP increases. GDP can be increasing while the rate of the production of real wealth is actually decreasing. At some point in future time, real wealth is needed to pay off these loans. Let's see now, real debt increasing with real wealth decreasing. ... trouble ahead.
The rate of debt and "money" creation has got way out of line with the rate of real wealth creation. At this point, there is going to be quite the reaction/adjustment/correction. And, it will not be felt just in the US.
Now a days, since 1971 (Brenton Woods Agreement), these huge increases of "money" supply (mostly digital bits on a hard drive) and the huge reaction/adjustment/correction that is inevitable are due to those that control the hard drives that contain the supply of digital bits. It and the next Great Depression, sure is not due to the invisible hand of a free market.
Suggested reading: Markets Don't Fail - Brian Simpson
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